Is Jonas Vingegaard ready to beat Tadej Pogačar and go from Giro to hero at the Tour de France?
Jonas Vingegaard's Giro-Tour double mission is an intriguing prospect, and the Danish rider is certainly in the right place to make it happen. After a dominant performance at the Giro d'Italia, where he secured a comfortable overall victory, Vingegaard is now turning his attention to the Tour de France, aiming to become just the ninth man to win both races in the same year.
Vingegaard's confidence is high, and he believes he is in very good shape for the Tour. This belief is shared by his team, Visma-Lease a Bike, who expect a closer battle between him and his rival, Tadej Pogačar, than the one they had last year. Pogačar, seeking a joint-record fifth yellow jersey, will be a formidable opponent, and the stage is set for an epic showdown.
However, the question remains: is Vingegaard ready to take on Pogačar and claim the Tour de France title? The conventional wisdom suggests that riding the Giro d'Italia is physically demanding and can leave a GC rider in worse shape for the Tour. History supports this, with it taking 26 years for a rider to last claim the Giro-Tour double.
But there are reasons to believe that Vingegaard is not worried about his shape. Firstly, his performances in the Vuelta a España after the Tour have been better, and he won last year's Spanish race. Secondly, he didn't have a serious rival at the Giro, and many analysts believe he was only riding at 90% of his full capacity. This suggests that he could have pushed harder, but he didn't need to, as he was never really challenged.
Vingegaard's coaching staff, including Mathieu Heijboer, believe that the rider is in better shape now than when he won the Tour in 2023. However, they also acknowledge that the sport has developed quickly, and other riders like Paul Seixas, Remco Evenepoel, and Florian Lipowitz are also progressing rapidly. This means that even if Vingegaard is at his best-ever level, it might not be enough to beat his rivals.
The Danish rider's recovery from a serious accident two springs ago is also a factor to consider. He crashed hard at the Itzulia Basque Country, breaking his sternum, several ribs, and a collarbone, and puncturing both of his lungs. He made a remarkable recovery to finish second at the Tour, and then won the Vuelta. However, his coaching staff were preaching that he wouldn't fully recover until the 2026 season.
Vingegaard's performances at the Giro suggest that he is now reaping the rewards of this lengthy process. He had a lot of time off the bike after the crash and spent a lot of energy in rehabilitation rather than in training to become better. His coaching staff and he wanted to make it to the Tour in 2024 in a controlled but high-pressured manner, and he needed a full season of racing and putting the hours in to be stronger again.
Vingegaard's preparation for the Tour includes a few days of living like a tourist in Italy, eating plenty of pizza and pasta and sampling the local wine. He will then fly back home to northern Denmark for about two weeks before joining the rest of the Visma Tour squad for a final altitude camp in Tignes, France.
Visma's head of performance, Mathieu Heijboer, believes that Vingegaard will be in better shape than at any other point in the past. However, he also acknowledges that Pogačar has developed quickly, and other riders are also progressing rapidly. This means that even if Vingegaard is at his best-ever level, it might not be enough to beat his rivals.
The Tour begins with a 19km team time trial in Barcelona, and then there's a 26km individual time trial on stage 16. Vingegaard's time-trialling performances have been inconsistent, and he appears to be at a disadvantage compared to his rivals. However, he has a strong climbing ability, which could make up for his weaknesses in the time trials.
The battle between Pogačar and Vingegaard has been close in the past, with Pogačar earning, on average, 50 bonus seconds in each edition. If this year's Tour is to be as closely fought as many hope, then bonus seconds could play a crucial role in determining the eventual winner. Visma will need to address this issue if they want to win.
In conclusion, Jonas Vingegaard is certainly in the right place to make a strong challenge for the Tour de France title. However, he will need to overcome some challenges, including his time-trialling weaknesses and the rapid development of his rivals. With his strong climbing ability and improved shape, he has a good chance of success, but it will be a close battle.
The 2026 Tour de France promises to be an epic showdown between two of the best riders in the world. Will Pogačar march towards his third consecutive title, or will Vingegaard claim his third? Perhaps even teenage debutant Paul Seixas will spoil the party for both of them. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the race will be a thrilling spectacle.
